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[QUOTE]Originally posted by Firewall: [QB] Originally Posted by TshabalalaGH View Post Well I'm sad for you that you have such a dim view about your country but there's a lot of progress going on in many African countries. Incredible progress! You gotta be living under a rock to not see these changes. [QUOTE=silence us;99298573]i've been to over 15 countries in africa mostly ssA, i don't see it, i see people living in poor conditions trying to survive in near impossible conditions, poor health care, poor educational system, generally poor public service where money can even get you out of jail if you steal from the poor depending how powerful you are locally or nationally, there are changes but most of Africa is 100 years behind the rest of the World, change was imminent but the pace is walking, some of you are happy with any little change but africa has wealth, most countries should invest in all their people and not just on friends, specific ethnic groups and relatives, i'm talking about things i see, the pace is unacceptable, i don't know if it's the mentality it can't be post colonialism[/QUOTE] Originally Posted by DSP View Post yeah my parents and uncles and older relatives said Cote Ivoire(and Liberia) were land of milk and honey back then [QUOTE=Paperyostrich;99308949]They were definatly. But after their fall they are now rising again, so I can see a very bright future ahead for these countries[/QUOTE] [QUOTE=Kangaroo MZ;99309434]Saying that Africa's growth is a myth is almost ridiculous. While most people still remain in poverty, there's also a considerable growth in wealth, health, education and an improvement in quality of life in many places. It's slow however.[/QUOTE] [QUOTE=Paperyostrich;99309542]It's more visable in some countries than others. Whilst some countries have exceled in these areas, some have stagnated or are even declining. It's true though it's not a myth. The growth is there and it's right in front of us, you don't have to look hard to see it. To get to the level of development seen by some other countries in the world will take a very very long time, but needless to say the continent is developing at a steady pace[/QUOTE] Quote: old school Accra, the capital of Ghana, has welcomed business travelers for years. Now tourists are streaming in, a byproduct of the fact that the country has Africa’s fastest-growing economy and is also one of its safest destinations. The Mövenpick Ambassador Hotel (with poolside bar and waiters on roller skates) opened in 2011, and the Marriott Accra — the chain’s first sub-Saharan offering — will feature a casino and upscale shopping when it opens in the spring. On Accra’s packed beaches, you’ll see everything from snake handlers to plantain peddlers. Head to the upscale neighborhood of Osu and hit the treehouse-inspired terrace at Buka for fine West African food. The best Ghanaian adventures start with a giant plate of tomato-smothered tilapia and banku — a fermented yeast paste that’s tastier than it sounds — washed down with local Star beer. __________________ [QUOTE=African Lion;99647421]Africas rise is real but it takes time to see it on land rather then just paper.[/QUOTE] Originally Posted by Malaika254 View Post Spending time in subforums will not change their mentality. We have hospitals offering free contraceptives to women for example, free antenatal clinics, graduates creating innovative stuff....., they will still bitch. They will forever miss the silver lining in the clouds. [QUOTE=RODDAS;99274742]^^ [b][SIZE="6"]Sorry, But [COLOR="Red"]Africa’s Rise is Real[/COLOR][/SIZE][/b] [IMG]http://www.foreignpolicy.com/files/images/masai_laptop_edited_.jpg[/IMG] [SIZE="3"]AFRICA GROWTH SKEPTICS HAVE GOT IT WRONG. THE CONTINENT'S RISE IS VERY REAL.[/SIZE] BY CHARLES ROBERTSON, MICHAEL MORAN | JANUARY 11, 2013 [b]The counter-attack,[/b] when it came, failed to live up to our expectations. As the authors of a book that challenges so much of what passes for conventional wisdom about Africa in financial, academic, and NGO circles, we thought long and hard about the vulnerabilities of our argument. In The Fastest Billion: The Story Behind Africa's Economic Revolution, we and our co-authors endeavor to show that sub-Saharan Africa -- or at least a great many of its 48 countries -- will make impressive advances in living standards, economic performance, health, education, and governance over the next thirty years. Like a growing number of economists, development specialists, health, and agricultural scientists, we have watched as the gap between popular depictions and reality on the ground in sub-Saharan Africa has widened. We set out, with detailed sectoral, geopolitical and econometric analysis, to lay out what we feel is a more accurate picture of sub-Saharan Africa today -- and the dramatic changes we expect to see in the coming decades. [SIZE="4"][b]The Myth of Africa's Rise[/b][/SIZE] For years, whenever economic or financial news from Africa managed to wangle its way through the tales of genocide, famine, and catastrophe spun by western correspondents, the response of pessimists has been to write off all growth on the continent as a crude commodity play. In a piece that makes this point aggressively, JNU doctoral candidate Rick Rowden returns to this narrative, [b][SIZE="3"]one which, we believe, reflects an outdated mentality and rests on several misconceptions about sub-Saharan Africa and economic development generally.[/SIZE][/b] Indeed, to write off, as Rowden does, a decade and a half of GDP growth at rates of 7 percent or more -- performance a dozen sub-Saharan African countries have achieved -- is as [b][SIZE="3"]outdated as the Cold War mentality that views China's massive investment as a threat or dismisses the startling improvements in health, education, per capita income, and retail activity as just some kind of anomaly. [/SIZE][/b] [b]Rowden, we believe, makes three critical miscalculations in discounting sub-Saharan Africa's prospects as "a myth," as the headline put it. [/b] First, [b]he makes the common mistake of comparing Africa today with East Asia today. It's like comparing Germany in 1840 with Victorian England at its height and saying Germany will never amount to anything.[/b] In our analysis, [b]we choose instead to compare Africa today with East Asia in the 1970s, when South Korea, to name just one subsequent "tiger," was still a poor, largely agricultural cub.[/b] Our confidence in forecasting robust future growth -- growth that lifts not only GDP but also the well-being and prosperity of these societies generally -- is based on the similarly of policy shifts, growth patterns and improvements in health, welfare and governance measurements that echo the events that preceded East Asia's takeoff. Second, [b][SIZE="3"]Rowden ignores the experience of India, which has pulled millions out of poverty and vaulted up international league tables without engaging in a massive push for industrialization.[/SIZE][/b] In contrast to the East Asian model, [b]India has boomed for 30 years without industrialization.[/b] The pace of India's GDP growth is exactly the same pace as Developing Asia for the last 20 years -- but with a 10-year lag. [b]Manufacturing accounted for 11 percent of India employment in 1995 and 11 percent in 2011.[/b] [b][SIZE="3"]It is services that are driving Indian growth.[/SIZE][/b] We argue that India is 20 years ahead of sub-Saharan Africa on this, and that growth in the region can accelerate for the next generation without industrialization leading the charge. [b]Rowden states that, absent such an emphasis on manufacturing and other value-added activities, a sub-Saharan country will be saddled with "still largely a primary agricultural economy with little movement towards the increased manufacturing or labor-intensive job creation that are needed for Africa to "rise." In fact, if there is a myth in Rowden's piece, this is it.[/b] Justin Yifu Lin, the Taiwan-born chief economist of the World Bank, recently emphasized in his own book, The Quest for Prosperity, that [b]every economic miracle -- including that of his Taiwanese homeland -- starts with the primary sectors doing well first. [/b] [b][SIZE="3"]Even Britain, the cradle of the Industrial Revolution, had to achieve an 18th-century agricultural revolution first. [/SIZE][/b]Russia's development in the late 19th and early 20th centuries followed a similar pattern. [b][SIZE="3"]Indeed, the mistake of too many African countries in the 1960s was in believing western and Soviet economic propaganda that promised post-independence leaders they could leap-frog straight to industrialization.[/SIZE][/b] This flew in the face of both western and Soviet history as even Stalin only industrialized on the back of what had been a very successful agricultural, mining, and resource sector. [b]The consequence was that African governments built up debt during the last commodity boom of the 1970s to pay for industrialization that was premature given infrastructure constraints (human and physical capital was lacking). [/b]Mining and resources in general today are helping Africa pay for the infrastructure improvements (from human to physical capital) that will enable the continent to expand industry. [b][SIZE="4"]Three key things have changed that suggest sub-Saharan Africa will start to industrialize at a faster pace. [/SIZE][/b] [b]First, labor costs are rising in China, thanks to its shrinking young labor force (the number of 15-24 year olds will fall 20-30 percent this decade). Per capita GDP was similar to sub-Saharan Africa in 2000, but is now three to five times higher.[/b] [b]Second, education levels in sub-Saharan Africa are now (2005 data) on par with Turkey and Mexico in 1975,[/b] suggesting that sub-Saharan Africa in the coming decades can emulate the industrialization of Turkey and Mexico in the 1980s and 1990s. This [b]began with textiles and light manufacturing, and got heavier and more value-added as time progressed.[/b] [b]Third, African governments are prioritizing business-friendly policies. [/b]The World Bank Ease of Doing Business reforms show steady progress among sub-Saharan African countries, as they do in Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index. [b][SIZE="3"]This is not to say that Rowden is all wrong.[/SIZE][/b] The [b]focus on industrialization may not be necessary for the next 20 years. But it would be useful.[/b] Justin Lin's book emphasizes that governments should adopt industrial policies. We richly agree, and we have counseled officials in Africa whenever we have an opportunity to do just that. [b]In [COLOR="Red"]Kenya[/COLOR], which will soon be the largest of Africa's economies, officials have such a plan. Called, Vision 2030, it spells out an industrial policy that will take effect after a major infrastructure investment and construction program is completed. [/b] Kenya is not unique -- many governments now have 10-20 year development plans -- and we agree that nothing in them guarantees they will be effectively implemented, or implemented at all. [b][SIZE="3"]We'd like to see more targeted policies, which aim to capture the textile and light manufacturing business which China is losing as its wages rise.[/SIZE][/b] We argue that education and demographics both suggest Africa is well placed to capture this over the next 10-20 years. But the fact is, [b][SIZE="3"]sub-Saharan Africa's leaders are conscious of the precedents and acutely aware they are walking two to three decades behind in the same footsteps as emerging market powers like Malaysia, Indonesia, India, South Korea and Brazil. [/SIZE][/b] [b][SIZE="3"][COLOR="red"]Discounting the chances of an entire continent under such circumstances strikes us as foolish, at best.[/COLOR][/SIZE][/b] We, after all, are an investment bank, and we approach this topic not only in the hope that a continent so ill-served by recent history will finally break through, but as an opportunity to share in its growing prosperity. If we're right, and we believe the case we make is very convincing, then we have indentified an important inflection point in global economic history as [b][SIZE="3"]sub-Saharan Africa finally begins to shake off the problems that led The Economist, only a decade ago, to label it "The Hopeless Continent." That august magazine's recent proclamation that Africa was rising should not, as Rowden suggests, be seen as a misguided and shallow provocation aimed at selling magazines.[/SIZE][/b] :eek: Indeed, it is a corrective -- one long overdue, in our minds -- and one only the hidebound can now abide. And when push comes to shove, [b][SIZE="3"]who among you would not be willing to risk a few dollars to own a bit of Hyundai or Kia at 1978 prices? That's precisely where sub-Saharan Africa is today. [/SIZE][/b] Photo by TONY KARUMBA/AFP/Getty Images Charles Robertson is Chief Economist of Renaissance Capital and Michael Moran Editor-in-Chief of Renaissance Insights, the bank's thought leadership division.[/QUOTE] [QUOTE=Paperyostrich;99280421]I can agree with that one, the Ivory Coast was really to be envied, but after the mid 80's, and especially after 1993 the country went to the dogs. In 1985 less that 10% of the population was living on less than $1.25 per day. Brilliant for a developing country. I think the problem is many in Africa, especially the presidents and governments want to develop, which is great. But, they seem to think that they can develop over night, which is not true. Many of the countries in the modern world such as Botswana, Turkey, Thailand, Vietnam are only alot more developed today because they have been developing for years at growth rates of 10% or more. You need long term growth strategies to make it both sustanible and long lasting, not just policies that aim for short busrts of growth. These countries also have a diversified economy. Many countries in Africa (Angola, Nigeria, Sierra Leone, Gabon etc) rely too much on one resource. You need to not just dig things up to grow, but also make them into something else, otherwise when demand for that resource falls, then you're in trouble. Mnay of these countries are also starting out from nothing. When some countries on the continent such as Chad, Botswana, CAR gained independance from 1960-1966 they were nothing, and apart from one or two resources had no economy, add the stagnation and you have the poverty and lack of basic development there is today. Some of the so called "Asian Tigers" for example were already quite well developed when they gained independence, and they managed to keep developing, this was not always the case for Africa, so in a sense the economies are still starting out, and those who had a strong industrial base like the DRC, Mozambique and Angola, all went down the plughole in the 1970's. In my view Africa is developing, but it needs to develop more than it is, which is an obvious statment, and it also needs to diversify. I myself am optimistic about Africa, and I have high hopes for it in the future.[/QUOTE] [QUOTE=HerachioBlo;99267741]Is it possible that many of you are assuming there's no manufacturing happening, growing or being looked into simple because you don't know? I think is article is wildly ignorant of the situation at hand on the continenet and bases it's understanding of africa on western articles with a China obsession/phobia I know that anambra, a state near my own has made incredible manufacturing strides in the past 4 years. from breweries to mechanized parts, to indigenous car manufacturing, but it's not making international news, so it doesn't exist I'm not going to foolishly assume that manufacturing isn't happening or growing in africa until i personally tour africa. AFrica has seen more manufacturing growth than anywhere in the world with the exception of asia, in the past few years.[/QUOTE] [QUOTE=TshabalalaGH;99268408]Well I'm sad for you that you have such a dim view about your country but there's a lot of progress going on in many African countries. Incredible progress! You gotta be living under a rock to not see these changes.[/QUOTE] [QUOTE=xJamaax;99267928]Some people won't be satisfied until they see some recognizable results. ;) Many African countries are doing well if you analyse and compare how they were doing years before.[/QUOTE] Spending time in subforums will not change their mentality. We have hospitals offering free contraceptives to women for example, free antenatal clinics, graduates creating innovative stuff....., they will still bitch. They will forever miss the silver lining in the clouds. Quote: Originally Posted by TshabalalaGH View Post It's just sad. Maybe ppl need to spend more time in the sub-forums. I see some of them do but they still ignore the info. I HAD ALOT OF INFO ABOUT PROGRESS IN AFRICA A FEW MONTHS AGO BUT IT WAS IGNORED AND STILL IS. With certain folks it's just a waste of time giving or showing the info. [/QB][/QUOTE]
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