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[QUOTE]Originally posted by tropicals redacted: [QB] From Richard Heinberg's 2003 [i]The Party's Over: Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies, [/i] Chapter 4, Non-Petroleum Energy Sources: Can the Party Continue? "How much energy could be derived from wind?Theoretically, a great deal. A good guide is a 1993 study by NREL that concluded that about 15 quads (quadrillion BTU) of energy could be produced in the US per year. Since the newer turbines are capable of operating in a wider range of wind conditions, that potential could conceivably now be in the range of 60 quads. Total energy usage in the US is about 100 quads. However, the realization of that potential will require huge investments and a strong commitment on the part of policymakers. Investment will be required not just for the turbines themselves, but also for new transmission lines: a 1991 California study estimated that only 12 percent of the "gross technical potential" for wind power in that state could be realized given the existing transmission infrastructure. In addition, it will be necessary to solve technical problems arising from wind power's intermittent daily, monthly, and seasonal availability. Often, peak availability of wind does not correspond with peak energy demand. This is not an insurmountable problem: energy storage systems (such as the Regenesys regenerative electrochemical fuel cell) are in development that may in the future eliminate the daily variability of electricity generation from wind." "Wind can deliver net energy: the challenge for industrial societies is to scale up production quickly enough to avert economic and social calamity ensuing from the inevitable disruptions in oil and natural gas supplies. Just to produce 18 quads of wind power in the US by 2030 (never mind the 60 quads of theoretical potential) would require the installation of something like half a million state-of-the art turbines, or roughly 20,000 per year starting now. That is five times the present world production capacity for turbines. This feat could be accomplished, but it would require a significant reallocation of economic resources. Meanwhile, most of the energy needed for that undertaking would have to come from dwindling fossil fuels. Given the energy investment required for turbine constructions and other infrastructure developments necessary for the transition to renewables, as petroleum begins to peter out there would be no surplus energy available to maintain the economy in conventional ways" (p140-142). [/QB][/QUOTE]
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