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[QUOTE]Originally posted by tropicals redacted: [QB] A concern about the continued use of fossil fuels relates to climate change, particularly for largely rural societies living with already challenging, tropical climates. On shale oil, I don't know if it's going to have the long-term viability that conventional sources had. Richard Heinberg (2003) suggested that once global peak production of conventional sources had been reached (which appears to have happened in the mid-2000s) the next play would be for the more difficult to access shale deposits. However, he cautioned, and still does, that the solution offered by shale would be illusory and short-lived, because the decline rates for the individual wells are so rapid: http://richardheinberg.com/bookshelf/snake-oil http://richardheinberg.com/museletter-260-shale-gas-peak-oil-and-our-future Can't remember where, but I saw a report over the last couple of weeks which suggested peak shale production as being 2016. There's also the current of the Saudi attempt to kill off shale producers as rivals. The Saudis are feeding an oil glut, which depresses oil prices, which in turn makes shale less viable financially (and vice versa). That's not to say that we should expect imminent societal meltdown - we could be on a plateau of overall fossil production that could last another decade or more before we start experiencing supply shocks. I think the overriding message is that we need to get serious about less energy intensive arrangements, what I think writers call 'powering down.' Yes, there is a place for fossil fuel alternatives, but again, I'm doubtful they're going to allow for business as usual. [/QB][/QUOTE]
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