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[QUOTE]Originally posted by Ish Gebor: [QB] [QUOTE]Originally posted by the lioness,: [qb] If there was a bag of 30 fruits comprised of apples and oranges and you blindly put your hand in the bag and pulled out two apples and one orange that does not mean the whole bag is of that proportion, based on 3 you can't assume there is more apples in there But suppose 30 out of 90 are E, that is still a lot [/qb][/QUOTE]Great analogy, because that is exactly how their "predictive models" work in this paper by Verena J. Schuenemann et al. But for some odd reason these rules changes when it comes to Africa in a positive light. [QUOTE] [b]Q8[/b]: Note 8: Test of Population Continuity: the analysis here was not described. Other than collapsing mtDNA lineages into haplogroup frequencies to compare ancient and contemporary groups, there is no description of what the actual test was. Even if the method was described in Brandt et al. (2013) [not even in the main text, only in their supplement], the authors should lay out the assumptions, parameter choices and models invoked in using this method. [b]Why for example, is TPC preferable over Approximate Bayesian Computation models typically used to test the relative liklihood of two different population demographies (in this case continuity w/ minimal drift vs. migration).[/b] [b]Answer:[/b] We have extended the description of our analysis both in the methods part of the manuscript and our supplementary information for clarification and to explain our main findings. Our intention to use the TPC as applied in Brandt et al. 2013 was to evaluate with a simple method whether we can assume genetic continuity (null hypothesis) between our ancient groups and modern-day populations. [b]We agree that complex ABC models would have been the ideal choice to explore alternative scenarios that could explain discontinuity under varying parameters (drift, migration, time, etc.), but were not deemed necessary given that we can more reliably estimate the origin and timing of admixture with nuclear data.[/b][/QUOTE]—Verena J. Schuenemann et al [QUOTE] The results of the TPC show that the transition from hunter-gatherers to the LBK farmers [i][b]cannot[/b] be explained by genetic drift alone (p=0.000001) (Fig. 2D), consistent with previous findings (10–11).[/i] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/core/lw/2.0/html/tileshop_pmc/tileshop_pmc_inline.html?title=Click%20on%20image%20to%20zoom&p=PMC3&id=4039305_nihms584043f2.jpg [/QUOTE]—Brandt et al. 2013 :D This thing is rigged and that is exactly what Sudaniya is referring at. [/QB][/QUOTE]
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