Tukuler
multidisciplinary Black Scholar
Member # 19944
posted
THE NEW YORK TIMES Politics | Immigrant Neighborhoods Shifted Red as the Country Chose Blue
Across the United States, many areas with large populations of Latinos and residents of Asian descent, including ones with the highest numbers of immigrants, had something in common this election: a surge in turnout and a shift to the right, often a sizable one.
The pattern was evident in big cities like Chicago and New York, in California and Florida, and along the Texas border with Mexico, according to a New York Times analysis of voting in 28,000 precincts in more than 20 cities.
=-=
Thousands of new voters across the country turned out in areas with significant numbers of Latinos and residents of Asian descent — populations whose participation in past elections has lagged. And over all, Mr. Trump, whose policies and remarks were widely expected to alienate immigrants and voters of color, won the lion’s share of the additional turnout.
=-=
Change in votes cast from 2016 to 2020, in precincts where the combined population of Latinos and residents of Asian descent is at least 65 percent Areas are ordered by number of Latino and Asian residents, from most to least.
=-=
But even as Mr. Trump lost ground in white and Republican areas in and around cities — ultimately leading to his election loss — he gained new votes in immigrant neighborhoods.
=-=
There were substantial variations in the level of turnout and in the magnitude of the shift in different populations, including large shifts and turnout in Cuban precincts; huge turnout and milder shifts in Mexican precincts in Arizona; and big shifts and modest turnout in Dominican neighborhoods of New York City. But almost everywhere, there was a turnout increase, and a rightward shift.
The Times analysis included 5,700 precincts in which the combined population of Latinos and people of Asian descent was 65 percent or more. In these places, the margin shifted toward the president by an average of 13 points.
Tukuler
multidisciplinary Black Scholar
Member # 19944
posted
Florida - It wasn’t just the Cuban areas in Miami.
In Florida, a state Mr. Trump won, the red shift was especially large in areas with many people of Cuban descent — including refugees from Communist rule and an energized younger generation.
In once deeply blue Miami, where a majority of Latinos are of Cuban descent, Mr. Biden’s margin of victory was just seven percentage points, down from Mrs. Clinton’s margin of 29 percentage points in 2016. And two Democratic congresswomen lost their seats there in this election.
But the shift right in areas with high immigrant populations was statewide, not just in Miami, and helped the president win the state with a margin larger than in 2016, though polls had predicted a Biden win.
The shift occurred in many precincts with Latino immigrants from Central and South America, including in Fort Lauderdale, north of Miami. And it also encompassed areas that are Latino but not immigrant. In Orlando, precincts with a substantial population of Puerto Ricans shifted red, though less so than the ones in Miami.
Tukuler
multidisciplinary Black Scholar
Member # 19944
posted
Texas - A blue shift in urban Texas, except in Mexican neighborhoods.
In Houston’s 245 precincts with the largest share of Latinos, turnout was up sharply from 2016, and Mr. Trump won nearly two-thirds of the additional votes.
About 7 percent of Harris County’s residents are of Asian descent, most of them immigrants. Precincts in Alief, in the county’s southwest — where many Vietnamese refugees and people of Mexican and Nigerian descent live — had some of the biggest rightward shifts.
The long-anticipated purpling of Republican Texas that was supposed to come as more Latinos joined the electorate was certainly nowhere in evidence on Election Day.
Mr. Trump’s most sizable gains outside of Miami were in the Rio Grande Valley in the predominantly Hispanic areas along the border with Mexico, including Hidalgo County, home to McAllen.
In San Antonio, the nation’s biggest majority Latino city, turnout was up nearly 30 percent. Democrats hoped to flip the 23rd Congressional District in southwest Texas, including much of the city, but failed.
“They were banking to win on the backs of Black and brown and Asian voters,” said Chuck Rocha, a Latino organizer who was a senior adviser to Senator Bernie Sanders during the primaries. “They lost all of these areas.”
In Dallas and Fort Worth, the trend held in areas that are predominantly Latino even as mostly white areas drove the counties left in the presidential race.
Across Texas, the red shifts were most pronounced in precincts with the highest proportion of Latinos. The Democratic margin in 80 percent Latino precincts dropped an average of 17 percentage points.
Tukuler
multidisciplinary Black Scholar
Member # 19944
posted
Pennsylvania - A swing state flips blue, as Philadelphia shifts to the right.
In Philadelphia, precincts in the Northeast — home to a mix of many Asian and Eastern European immigrants — shifted in Mr. Trump’s direction, even though a majority still favored Mr. Biden
The Democratic vote fell 18 percent in majority Latino areas, including in the largely Puerto Rican precincts in North Philadelphia. The president got 15 percent of the vote here, up from 5 percent in 2016.
In majority Black precincts, Mr. Biden still received 95 percent of the vote despite slight shifts to the right. But voting was down 20 percent.
Over all, Mr. Biden won Pennsylvania by about 82,000 votes, reversing Mrs. Clinton’s critical loss in the state in 2016.
But Democrats lost ground in Philadelphia. In precincts with high numbers of Latinos and residents of Asian descent, Mr. Biden lost about 10,000 votes, compared with the Democratic vote four years ago. He lost an additional 5,000 votes in majority Black precincts.
Tukuler
multidisciplinary Black Scholar
Member # 19944
posted
New York - In the city of immigrants, Democrats lost ground almost everywhere.
Mr. Trump’s share of the vote doubled to 15 percent in areas where residents of Dominican descent make up the majority.
There was uniform shift to Mr. Trump in both Flushing and Corona, neighborhoods with high populations of Latinos and Asians.
In mostly Orthodox Jewish Williamsburg and Borough Park, already pro-Trump, there was a further shift to the right
In New York City, where 38 percent of residents are immigrants, most areas shifted right, even though they all remained strongly Democratic. This included virtually every predominantly Latino precinct and ones where a majority of residents are of Asian descent.
In the city’s 100 precincts with the largest number of Latinos, Mr. Trump received 18 percent of the vote this year, compared with just 7 percent in 2016. In precincts with large numbers of residents of Asian descent, turnout was up 20 percent, with Mr. Trump winning most of the additional votes.
Tukuler
multidisciplinary Black Scholar
Member # 19944
posted
California - In the center of Asian immigration, a veer to the right.
California is home to a third of the country’s residents of Asian descent. One of the most drastic red shifts in the country came in Orange County in precincts with many Vietnamese residents, who basically switched sides.
In other precincts in Orange and Los Angeles Counties that have many residents of Asian descent, Mr. Trump’s vote increased as well. Two Democratic congressmen lost to Republicans in these counties.
In Los Angeles and Orange precincts with a Latino majority, more than 415,000 additional voters cast ballots; 87 percent of the precincts shifted right.
In Garden Grove and Westminster, [t]urnout was up 60 percent in precincts where a majority of residents are of Vietnamese descent, and the shift to Mr. Trump was 42 percentage points.
“Just like Miami, you have another Communist refugee population that’s moved into an area with a conservative power structure,” said Karthick Ramakrishnan, professor at the University of California at Riverside, and director of the National Asian American Survey.
In areas with a majority of residents of Chinese descent, the shift was less extreme, but still to the right, in spite of the president’s xenophobic behavior, including the deliberate labeling of the coronavirus as the “Chinese virus” and demanding that China be held accountable for the pandemic.
Tukuler
multidisciplinary Black Scholar
Member # 19944
posted
Chicago
Almost all of the precincts with a majority Latino population showed an increase in enthusiasm for the president including ones with tens of thousands of residents of Mexican descent. Mr. Trump received 45 percent more votes in these areas than four years ago. Mr. Biden still won, but the number of people who voted Democratic did not increase over 2016.
It was not just Latino areas. In a belt of suburbs north of Chicago — precincts that are home to South Asian, Arab and Eastern European immigrants — there was also higher turnout, and a shift to Mr. Trump.
In Chinatown, Mr. Trump’s vote increased by 34 percent over 2016, while Mr. Biden received 6 percent fewer votes than Hillary Clinton. Mr. Biden still won in precincts with a majority of residents of Asian descent, but the Democratic margin of victory fell 12 percentage points.
Meanwhile, areas with more modest red shifts tended to be predominantly Black, with few immigrants. Mr. Biden received fewer votes than Mrs. Clinton in these areas while Mr. Trump’s vote increased slightly.
posted
Are post implying Xyyman was right? Because it's interesting that most of the switch from blue to red was from groups who don't have a long history in the U.S. And ADOS didn't seem to budge much. I wonder if ADOS remaining the same because of perceived benefits of being Democrat as oppose to the other folks who seem better organized to exploit the U.S.economy.
Posts: 1123 | From: New York | Registered: Feb 2016
| IP: Logged |
posted
We are going to need the cross-tabs of these numbers but never underestimate misogyny and racism in these traditional patriarchal ethnicities..
also, the partitioning of subgroups on facebook has been proven to be a very useful tactic.. anecdotal evidence is there is an anti-black lives matter marketing to the Asian & Latino subgroups...
-------------------- It's not my burden to disabuse the ignorant of their wrong opinions Posts: 2699 | From: New York | Registered: Jun 2015
| IP: Logged |
posted
xyyman is always right. I go where the data takes me.
ADOS also has a sizeable shift. Last count 20% of black males voted for the Don. Regardless to what you see on TV blacks are more conservative than whites. Especially as we get older we no longer believe in that social, military or financial nonsense. Proposition 8? Blamed on blacks
The DNC is done! This is their last chance. If this cheating works they will need to jam as much legislation through as possible in the next four years.
To stop this the Don has only Martial Law. He will be justified and will have the support needed to make it work.
quote:Originally posted by Thereal: Are post implying Xyyman was right? Because it's interesting that most of the switch from blue to red was from groups who don't have a long history in the U.S. And ADOS didn't seem to budge much. I wonder if ADOS remaining the same because of perceived benefits of being Democrat as oppose to the other folks who seem better organized to exploit the U.S.economy.
-------------------- Without data you are just another person with an opinion - Deming Posts: 12143 | From: When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable | Registered: Jun 2007
| IP: Logged |
Tukuler
multidisciplinary Black Scholar
Member # 19944
posted
quote:Originally posted by Thereal: Are post implying Xyyman was right?
No Yes Maybe Depends
I don't clique up and go by individuals. What particular point(s) Mensa made do you mean?
I present interesting data here showing where rightist shifts are happening in which ethnic populations but left out ytes, the majority ethnic population and the core of the voting system.
Although the groups in the opening posts show the biggest right swing (when Black females' astonishing 100% red shift growth is discounted) the fact remains they did in fact overall vote Democratic liberal left more than they did Republic conservative right.
Although Nigerians were mentioned in one state, yet to see Black America broken into its variety of ethnics. The biggest groupings in my opinion that should be broken down are
* East and Horn Africans * West and Central Africans * Southern Africans * Hispanic Island Latins (the ladinos of the latinos) * Caribbes (anglo and francophone) * native sons (and daughers) i.e., Yankees
by simple geographies without considering for instance the variance between Kenyan and Somali of the East and Horn grouping. Is it 'fair' to lump IT sophisticated Kenyans with refugee Somalis which alters certain statistics?
So actually a nation by nation breakdown is best. But so what?
We at ES can't do it and none the major polls gonna do it. The ytes are into seeing the first five members on that list be confused for the last listed one, the historic American Negro descended from America's slaves and still effectually Freedmen by class as they and they alone form the bottom American caste.
A man whose mother is Irish American and whose father is Luo Kenyan may well be a Black American (nevermind what colour Kenyans assign to mulattos) but is by no measure an American Negro historic foundational Black American descendant of slavery.
All these new 21st century Black American add ons all have far different heritage background history and culture among themselves less lone the American Negro.
Tukuler
multidisciplinary Black Scholar
Member # 19944
posted
@ Mensa
I dunno, getting easily confused these days, but I think 20% refers to some "Black" potential voters who didn't. I dunno.
So can you please include media wide replicable reference(s) for percentages you present in this thread.
No alternative reality sources for non-comformists.
Please respect me and my intents for this thread (but of course, gon n do as u pls). Thx.
=-=
In my opinion only very well to do blx living in non-blk nabes want to see America revert to the 1950s. The more one is removed from the day to day of the avg FBA the more one misses the picture of the permanent underclass caste.
There's always been a small number of GOP Blx since 1964. Thing is they're conservative types with an eye on money. They are not Trumpist blowing Trump's horn till it pops. Like other GOP members they are remaining Red, resisting party takeover by an excellent fascist demagogue, and work for restoring the pre-Trump Republican party.
quote:Originally posted by xyyman: xyyman is always right. I go where the data takes me.
ADOS also has a sizeable shift. Last count 20% of black males voted for the Don. Regardless to what you see on TV blacks are more conservative than whites.
58% of the white males who voted, voted for Trump
20% (18%-) of black males who voted, voted for Trump
so that suggests white males are nearly 3 times more conservative
or are you still an adherent of backwardsism ?
Posts: 42925 | From: , | Registered: Jan 2010
| IP: Logged |
-------------------- Without data you are just another person with an opinion - Deming Posts: 12143 | From: When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable | Registered: Jun 2007
| IP: Logged |
UBBFriend: Email this page to someone!
Printer-friendly view of this topic