The heat is on A new report says millions could be displaced from the northern Delta by climate change By Henry Huttinger & Eman Shaban Morsi
The Delta stands to lose big if global warming trends are not dealt with.
Henry Huttinger
Millions of Egyptians could be forced to migrate from the Nile Delta due to the effects of climate change, according to a report published last month by the Ministry for Environmental Affairs. In the next 50 years, Egypt’s coastal zone, home to more than 40 percent of the population, stands to be severely damaged by flooding, groundwater salinity and erosion resulting from rising sea levels associated with global warming.
Compiled by numerous research institutions and commissioned by the State Ministry for Environmental Affairs, the report forecasts a rise in sea level of approximately 50 centimeters by 2050, based on official figures from the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change. Such a rise could potentially create as many as 14 million internally displaced persons as increased groundwater salinity and land deterioration make residents’ living situation untenable.
The areas at highest risk of damage are highly populated industrial and commercial centers, including Alexandria, Port Said, Damietta and Rosetta. With about 40 percent of all Egyptian industry located within the governorate of Alexandria, the predicted environmental impact could have dire socio-economic repercussions.
Researchers cited in the report estimate that if no action is taken to reduce global warming, rising seas will displace nearly 1.5 million people in the governorate of Alexandria alone.
“The data published in this report amounts to a serious warning, and must be considered in any plans for developing the Delta region,” said Mohammed Al Rai, a co-author of the report and professor of environmental science at the University of Alexandria. “The governorates of Alexandria, Baheira, Port Said—in short, the entire northern Delta—is in grave danger from sea levels rising and the associated environmental effects on agriculture.”
A rise in sea level will not only threaten the homes of millions in low-lying areas of the Delta, but also increase the saline contamination of groundwater resources. As low-lying land becomes uncultivable, farmers will be forced to migrate to desert land outside the Delta or into crowded urban centers in search of work. An increase in the cultivation of desert land would also accelerate land degradation and increase desertification.
Given Egypt’s growing population, limited arable land (2.87 percent of the country’s territory) and the high level of economic activity in the coastal areas, the potential social and economic impacts of sea level rise are devastating. The population is expected to double before the year 2050 if the present growth rate of 1.78% is maintained. An equivalent growth rate in agricultural and industrial output will critically strain the Nile and other natural resources. The impact of global warming can only exacerbate the situation.
To avert a potential crisis, the report advises that the government increase funding for research into the impact of climate change on the coastal zone. Another recommendation is that Egypt improve its capacity for climate monitoring and forecasting, and implement schemes to conserve water.
Universities, research institutions and the Ministry for Environmental Affairs have already made research on mitigating and adapting to climate change a high priority.
A 12-year comprehensive plan for developing Egyptian science and technology, prepared by Egypt’s Ministry of Scientific Research and Academy of Scientific Research, is currently waiting for approval by parliament. The Academy is expected to direct a budget of $8.5 billion for research into fields such as biotechnology, renewable energy and agriculture technologies.
Additionally, researchers at Cairo’s Agricultural Genetic Engineering Research Institute have genetically modified a strain of wheat to be drought-resistant. The genetically modified (GM) wheat was tested in greenhouse and field trials in 2004, showing taller plants that had higher yields than the non-modified crops. If commercialized, the wheat will be the first GM product on the Egyptian market.
Other projects include the creation of massive carbon dioxide sinks, such as the “green belt” currently under development on the perimeter of Cairo, whose aim is to absorb some of the carbon dioxide produced in the city.
Efforts to reduce emissions have been taken seriously by the government, according to Waheed Mahmoud Emam, a professor of environmental studies at Ain Shams University. He pointed out that the “government is taking steps in addressing the issue of carbon dioxide emissions and climate change as a whole.”
The government has signed and ratified the Kyoto Protocol, an agreement that requires signatories to reduce their emissions to pre-1990 levels. Although it is one of the heaviest polluters in the Middle East, Egypt’s status as a developing country means that its reduction requirements are not as stringent as those applying to developed countries. By emitting less carbon dioxide than its allowance, Egypt is able to sell off its surplus of carbon dioxide emissions credit to other nations.
Government officials declined to comment on Egypt’s policy on emissions trading.
Emam believes the government is taking climate change seriously, yet is disheartened by the lack of global consensus on emissions reduction. “Egypt’s contribution to global emissions is negligible, less than half of one percent, yet we are complying with the Kyoto Protocol. The problem lies with major industrialized states such as the US, which produces about 25 percent of the world’s carbon dioxide emissions and has yet to acknowledge the threat of climate change or endorse the Kyoto agreement.”
The leaders of the major industrial countries, the G8, met last week in Scotland to discuss, among other issues, African development and climate change. Their communiqué on climate change states that global warming is a “serious long-term challenge” for the entire planet. The leaders promised to act with “resolve and urgency” to reduce gas emissions, but they specified no targets or timetable.
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