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Twelve Egyptians have been infected by the H5N1 strain of avian flu, and the government and small poultry producers are adapting to life after the end of the livestock free market
As European bird migration season came to an end in late March, government officials were hoping for the best-case scenario for the spread of avian flu: That new cases would taper off, at least until the next season begins in September, but the first human infection and avian flu deaths, reported on March 18, completely changed the nature of the threat. The government is now addressing a potentially deadly, all-year outbreak.
Since the H5N1 flu strain hit Egypt in mid-February, 19 of the nation’s 26 governorates confirmed outbreaks of the virus in poultry, resulting in the culling and slaughtering of more than 10 million birds. According to the Ministry of Health and Population, during the period marking the end of the migratory season, H5N1 reappeared in flocks in previously infected governorates including Sharqiyah, Qalyoubeya, Gharbia, Minya, and Bahariyya.
“Recent figures indicate that the industry has experienced LE 2 billion in losses resulting from both the culling of infected birds and people passing on eating chicken,” says Ministry of Health and Population Spokesman Abdel Rahman Shahine, adding that Egypt’s LE 17 billion industry produced around 750-800 million chickens a year before the virus took hold.
Despite a decreasing rate of infection in birds, the human infection toll has so far risen to 12, with four deaths in less than four weeks at press time. All 12 were hospitalized and treated with Tamiflu, an antiviral agent known to reduce the intensity of the infection. According to the ministry, six of the 12 infected have made a full recovery and have been discharged, while the two remaining survivors are still hospitalized but showing steady signs of recovery.
All human infections were reportedly among employees in the poultry industry or people who did not cull their domestic flocks in violation of an order imposed in mid-February. The ministry believes the recurrence of human cases in Qalyoubeya owes to it being the nation’s most active poultry-producing governorate, home to 35-40% of the poultry industry.
Confirmation of the first human fatality caused moderate panic as large numbers of people rushed to state-run hospitals seeking tests. The ministry reported that it was screening over 100 people with flu-like symptoms each day. Shahine says those kept in the hospital under supervision while awaiting results are automatically administered Tamiflu as a precautionary measure.
The ministry has so far stockpiled around 80,000 tablets of Tamiflu at a cost of LE 95 each.
“By the end of this year, we will have stockpiled 1.2 million tablets of Tamiflu and we’ll have another 1.2 million by the end of 2007,” says Shahine, explaining that Egypt will ship doses of the drug to neighboring countries when necessary. “Hospitals are forbidden from selling Tamiflu for fear that doing so will spur the emergence of a Tamiflu-resistant strain,” he notes, adding that tests conducted in hospitals require only saliva samples to determine the presence of the virus. The ministry is subsidizing the LE 450 lab tests.
The spokesman adds that all 107 state-run hospitals nationwide are equipped with isolation facilities and physicians trained to treat avian flu infections. Industry on ice
Chicken consumption is now at a never-before-seen low in restaurants and retail outlets despite officials’ constant assurances that cooked poultry is perfectly safe to eat.
“For KFC, we have seen a drop in sales of over 50% resulting from the bird flu virus as the public is not aware of how safe our products are. Customers’ visits have also decreased by over 50%,” says Khaled Badrawi, marketing manager at Americana, owner of KFC in Egypt, who adds that his company’s products are delivered frozen from hygienic and isolated slaughterhouses.
Americana’s management is now mulling over new stop-loss policies. “Along with our traditional chicken favorites, we are planning to offer alternative [meals] to our customers at KFC in the near future. And due to the low poultry prices, there is the chance that we may offer special price promotions in our outlets,” Badrawi says.
The poultry industry is not the only one feeling the pinch. Cairo Poultry Company (CPC), Egypt’s leading poultry producer, also controlled over 60% of the feed market. “Feed sales have dropped by 50% because many people do not raise chickens anymore, as [the bird flu crisis] has affected their sales,” says Magdy El Sebaie, CPC general manager.
CPC’s feed losses are not as great as the losses poultry breeders are racking up because feed can be stored for up to three years.
Meanwhile, sales of CPC’s supermarket freezer-section Koki-brand products are climbing as they’re among the handful of chicken products still legal on the market.
“Koki is an all-time success story because people started shifting to frozen chickens,” says Hazem Zayed, CPC’s chief financial officer. “Koki sales have increased because people could not give up eating chicken as it is a cheaper source of protein than meat and fish. The Koki market bounced back because many people started realizing there is no harm in eating it.”
All of CPC’s daily chicken production is earmarked for consumption as there is no longer a market for live chicks. The overwhelming majority of small poultry producers and retailers that drove the once-thriving livestock market can only hope for government compensation.
“At the beginning of the crisis, the government got involved in organizing slaughtering processes and paid LE 5 for each [officially] slaughtered chicken,” says Cabinet Spokesman Magdy Rady, adding that healthy chickens were bought from a number of farmers for the same price. There has also been talk about making funds and interest-free loans available to small-scale producers to help them gear up to produce frozen chicken.
In addition to the government compensation, the European Commission (EC) has pledged 80 million in aid grants to emerging economies hit by the virus, with 10 million earmarked for the Mediterranean region and 30 million for African countries.
Moreover, a further 20 million in research funds is earmarked from the Community Framework Program for Research and Technology Development, bringing the total EC pledge to 100 million. The funds are designated for technical assistance and training courses as well as a veterinary mission and a humanitarian mission, according to Barbara Stacher, first secretary of trade affairs at the EC Delegation in Egypt. Getting to the other side
With the worst sacrifices made and international help flowing in, government officials are now trying to look on the positive side.
“We’ve witnessed full cooperation between various authorities and ministries for the first time,” says Shahine. “This experience has proven that different ministries such as health, agriculture, environment, interior, and information and the governorates, have been successful in coordinating and dealing with the crisis as one, which is not very common in Egypt.”
He adds that the armed forces, in particular, have exerted a tremendous effort in culling and burying tons of dead birds and carting away animals left on streets and in sewage. The military also bought over a million chickens to be consumed by the forces.
“Despite financial losses, this is a good chance to restructure Egypt’s poultry industry and place it in on the right track,” says Shahine. By restructuring, Shahine means “gradually transforming the market from eating livestock chickens into consuming frozen chicken like the rest of the world.”
To achieve this, he explains, poultry will only be sold in licensed shops and will be under the supervision of the Veterinary Authority before being slaughtered.
Rady adds that it is high time to rationalize the poultry sector and convert the system of unlicensed breeding into an organized industry that abides by health and environmental standards. To help butcher shop owners convert to frozen distribution, the government has sold retailers in Qalyoubeya around 10,000 deep freezers with easy down payments, and more will be offered in other governorates.
The Cabinet spokesman adds that the government has already implemented an aspect of the restructuring scheme, as domestic poultry breeding has now been prohibited entirely in urban areas, while in rural areas birds can only be bred domestically under very strict conditions.
Anyone seeking to breed poultry domestically in rural areas, Rady says, “has to report the number and kind of fowl to the Veterinary Authority, which will ensure that the hygiene is adequate and that the birds are constantly tested for disease.
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